Euro / US Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast

Monthly Chart

Prepared by Joel Kruger

The overall trend remains intensely bearish and we are now looking for the formation of a fresh medium-term lower top just over 1.3300 to be confirmed on an eventual break back below the 2010 lows by 1.1880 further down. Any rallies towards 1.3000 should be aggressively sold, with only a break back above 1.3335 to negate structure and give reason for rethink.

Euro / US Dollar Interest Rate Forecast

Currency, Central Bank	Euro, European Central Bank	US Dollar, US Federal Reserve	Net EURUSD Spread	Signal
1-Year Expectations (Basis Points)	31	16	15	Bullish
Yield in 1 Year (Percent)	1.31	0.41	0.90	Bullish

Stagnant US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank interest rate expectations have had seemingly little effect on EURUSD price action, and instead the pair has moved virtually tick-for-tick with the US S&P 500 and other risky assets. Overnight Index Swaps currently predict that both the Fed and ECB will leave rates effectively unchanged in the coming 12 months. Barring a substantial shift in official rhetoric and/or improvements in economic data, we expect this to continue to be the case through the foreseeable future.

Lack of emphasis on interest rates themselves does not diminish the importance of sound economic data, however. For the US Federal Reserve much of the focus remains on the potential for further Quantitative Easing measures. Thus it will be important to watch for steady improvements in US economic data; else the Euro may continue to recover and set new highs against its US counterpart.

Euro / US Dollar Valuation Forecast

EURUSD Valuation Forecast: Bearish

The Euro remains overvalued against the US Dollar, tracking 11.5 percent above its PPP-implied exchange rate. The argument for a continued correction in the medium term appears compelling. With both the Fed and the ECB likely to remain on the sidelines, the strong correlation between EURUSD and overall risk sentiment is likely to exert downward pressure amid increasing evidence of a global economic slowdown in the second half of the year. Indeed, the JPMorgan Global PMI gauge of economic activity dropped to the lowest in six months in August. On balance, the bias remains bearish.

What is Purchasing Power Parity?

One of the oldest and most basic fundamental approaches to determining the “fair” exchange rate of one currency to another relies on the concept of Purchasing Power Parity. This approach says that an identical product should cost the same from one country to another, with the only difference in the price tag accounted for by the exchange rate. For example, if a pencil costs €1 in Europe and $1.20 in the US, the “fair” EURUSD exchange rate should be 1.20. For our purposes, we will use the PPP values provided annually by Bloomberg. We compare these values to current market rates to determine how much each currency is under- or over-valued against the US Dollar.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast

Monthly Chart

Prepared by Joel Kruger

Although the market has been very well bid over the past several months, with the latest rally opening yet another move beyond critical psychological barriers by 0.9000, longer-term studies show the price trading near its cyclical highs, with any rallies in previous years up into current levels very well capped ahead of some major declines. A closer look at the major moving averages on the daily chart shows all of these moving averages coiling together to warn of a major move ahead, which we contend will be to the downside.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar Interest Rate Forecast

Currency, Central Bank	Australian Dollar, Reserve Bank of Australia	US Dollar, US Federal Reserve	Net AUDUSD Spread	Signal
1-Year Expectations (Basis Points)	11	16	(5)	Bearish
Yield in 1 Year (Percent)	4.61	0.41	4.20	Bullish

The Australian Dollar’s substantial interest rate advantage against its US namesake has helped push the AUDUSD to noteworthy heights, and relatively stable outlook supports the case for AUD strength. Interest rate traders initially predicted that the Reserve Bank of Australia would continue raising rates through 2010. Yet those same interest rate derivatives now show that the RBA’s cash target will remain unchanged in the coming 12 months. Normally this would be enough to hurt such a yield-sensitive currency, but similar downgrades on US Dollar yield expectations have essentially offset said moves.

All else remaining equal, we expect interest rates will continue to support AUDUSD strength.

Australian Dollar / US Dollar Valuation Forecast

AUDUSD Valuation Forecast: Bearish

The Australian Dollar remains the most overvalued against its US counterpart and well above positioning extremes, trading at 24.4 percent premium to PPP-implied fair value. With RBA rate hikes apparently off the table for the time being, risk sentiment lines up as the dominant driver of price action. Indeed, AUDUSD continues to show a strong correlation with the MSCI World Stock index . On balance, this points toward weakness ahead in the medium term amid increasing signs of a global economic slowdown on tap for the second half of the year, an outcome that is likely to sink shares and the Aussie alike. Indeed, the JPMorgan Global PMI gauge of economic activity dropped to the lowest in six months in August.

What is Purchasing Power Parity?

One of the oldest and most basic fundamental approaches to determining the “fair” exchange rate of one currency to another relies on the concept of Purchasing Power Parity. This approach says that an identical product should cost the same from one country to another, with the only difference in the price tag accounted for by the exchange rate. For example, if a pencil costs €1 in Europe and $1.20 in the US, the “fair” EURUSD exchange rate should be 1.20. For our purposes, we will use the PPP values provided annually by Bloomberg. We compare these values to current market rates to determine how much each currency is under- or over-valued against the US Dollar.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar Monthly Technical Forecast

Monthly Chart

Prepared by Joel Kruger

Currently locked in multi-month consolidation with a good portion of the price action largely confined to the 0.7000-0.7300 area. This consolidation follows a major corrective upside move from just under 0.5000 and we contend that the market is on the verge of ending the current consolidation ahead of the next major downside extension back below 0.6500 and towards 0.5000 over the coming months. Ultimately, a lower top is now sought out below 0.8200, by 0.7600, with only a break back above 0.7600 to negate bearish outlook and give reason for concern.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar Interest Rate Forecast

Currency, Central Bank	New Zealand Dollar Reserve Bank of New Zealand	US Dollar, US Federal Reserve	Net NZDUSD Spread	Signal
1-Year Expectations (Basis Points)	56	16	40	Bullish
Yield in 1 Year (Percent)	3.56	0.41	3.15	Bullish

Our interest rate-based New Zealand Dollar bias is quite similar to that of the AUDUSD. The NZD maintains a fairly significant interest rate advantage over its US namesake, and current forecasts imply that this yield differential will actually grow in the next 12 months. All else remaining equal, we expect that said outlook will support the New Zealand Dollar through the foreseeable future. This may be partly contingent on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s next moves on whether or not to raise interest rates.

Recent bank rhetoric suggests that the RBNZ maintains a modestly hawkish/tightening bias—making its next actions particularly significant.

New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar Valuation Forecast

NZDUSD Valuation Forecast: Bearish

As with its Australian counterpart, the New Zealand Dollar is gravely overvalued against its US counterpart, trading above the upper positioning extreme at 20.1 percent above its PPP-implied fair value. Risk sentiment remains the dominant driver of price action, with NZDUSD continuing to show a strong correlation with the MSCI World Stock index . This points toward weakness ahead in the medium term amid increasing signs of a global economic slowdown on tap for the second half of the year, an outcome that is likely to sink shares and correlated currencies, including the Kiwi. Indeed, the JPMorgan Global PMI gauge of economic activity dropped to the lowest in six months in August.

What is Purchasing Power Parity?

One of the oldest and most basic fundamental approaches to determining the “fair” exchange rate of one currency to another relies on the concept of Purchasing Power Parity. This approach says that an identical product should cost the same from one country to another, with the only difference in the price tag accounted for by the exchange rate. For example, if a pencil costs €1 in Europe and $1.20 in the US, the “fair” EURUSD exchange rate should be 1.20. For our purposes, we will use the PPP values provided annually by Bloomberg. We compare these values to current market rates to determine how much each currency is under- or over-valued against the US Dollar.

Our Forex Monthly Technical and Fundamental Outlook report examines long-term forecasts for major currencies, as we explore key themes ranging from chart patterns, fundamental valuations, and interest rate forecasts. Visit any of the links above to see Fundamental, Technical, and Valuation forecasts for major forex pairs.

We always want to hear your feedback on new DailyFX articles. Want more articles like this? Less? What do you want to see? Send e-mails to jskruger@dailyfx.com , drodriguez@dailyfx.com , and ispivak@dailyfx.com.

Talking Points

• Japanese Yen: Mixed Amongst Majors
• Pound: Home Prices Unexpectedly Rise for Second Month
• Euro: German Trade Surplus Narrows in July
• U.S. Dollar: Fed’s Beige Book, Consumer Credit on Tap

As the euro-dollar bounces back from the 100-Day SMA (1.2669), the pair may work its way back above the 20-Day SMA at 1.2759, but the uncertainties surrounding the European economy could weigh on the exchange rate even though policy makers attempt to talk down the risks for the region. Bundesbank President Axel Weber said that the economic recovery has been stronger than initially expected and does not see a risk for a double-dip recession or deflation, but went onto say that it is too early to say that the crisis is over as the future outlook remains clouded with uncertainties. In addition, Mr. Weber argued that higher capital ratios for commercial banks will not “hamper” the real economy as global policy makers aim to strengthen the financial system, and expects to see moderate growth paired with price stability going forward as the central bank aims to stem the downside risks for the economy.

At the same time, European Central Bank board member Guy Quaden said commercial banks cannot be “eternally” dependent on the emergency measures as the Governing Council aims to normalize policy in 2011, and said that the central bank will “do everything possible to avoid deflation” while keeping a lid on inflation as it maintains its one and only mandate to ensure price stability. As the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system tighten fiscal policy and implement austerity measures to balance their public finances, the ECB is widely expected to support the real economy throughout the remainder of the year as central bank President Jean-Claude Trichet anticipates an uneven recovery to unfold going forward. Nevertheless, the economic docket showed the trade surplus for Germany narrowed to EUR 13.5B in July from a revised EUR 14.2B in the previous month, led by an unexpected 1.5% decline in exports, while industrial outputs in Europe’s largest economy tipped 0.1% higher in July, which fell short of projections for a 1.0% rise.

The British Pound pared the decline from earlier this week and rallied to a high of 1.5493 during the European trade as the economic docket reinforced an improved outlook for the U.K., but the lack of momentum to push above the 20-Day SMA (1.5493) could keep the exchange rate within a narrow range throughout the day as the Bank of England is scheduled to announce its rate decision on Thursday at 11:00 GMT. A report by Halifax showed home prices increased 0.2% in August amid forecasts for a 0.5% decline, while industrial outputs increased 0.3% in July versus forecasts for a 0.4% rise. Moreover, manufacturing in the U.K. expanded 0.3% for the third consecutive month, which was largely in-line with expectations, and the recovery may gather pace over the coming months as businesses continue to expand production and employment.

The greenback lost ground on Wednesday, with the USD/JPY slipping to a fresh yearly low of 83.33 during the overnight trade, and the dollar is likely to face increased volatility throughout the day as the Fed is likely to maintain a cautious outlook for the world’s largest economy. In addition, the economic docket is expected to show a $4.5B drop in consumer credit following the $1.3B decline in June, and the developments could weigh on the prospects for future growth as private sector spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy.

Will the EUR/USD Continue To Retrace The Advance From June? Join us in the Forum

Related Articles: Forex Technical and Fundamental Forecasts for September

To discuss this report contact David Song , Currency Analyst : dsong@fxcm.com

F X Upcoming

Currency	GMT	EST	Release			Expected		Prior
USD	11:00	07:00	MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 3)			--		2.7%
CAD	12:30	08:30	Building Permits (MoM) (JUL)			-4.9%		6.5%
CAD	13:00	09:00	Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision			1.00%		0.75%
CAD	14:00	10:00	Ivey PMI (AUG)			55.5		54
USD	18:00	14:00	Fed Release Beige Book Economic Report			--		--
Currency	GMT	Release		Expected	Actual		Comments
GBP	23:00	BRC Shop Price Index (AUG)		--	1.7%		Led by higher food costs.
JPY	23:50	Bank Lending Banks Adjustments (YoY) (AUG)		--	-1.7%		Contracts for the ninth month, which could lead the BoJ to expand monetary policy further over the coming months.
JPY	23:50	Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (AUG)		--	-2.0%
JPY	23:50	Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (AUG)		2.6%	2.8%
JPY	23:50	Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (AUG)		1.9%	2.1%
JPY	23:50	Machine Orders (MoM) (JUL)		2.0%	8.8%		Fastest pace of growth since December.
JPY	23:50	Machine Orders (YoY) (JUL)		8.0%	15.9%
JPY	23:50	Trade Balance – BOP Basis (yen) (JUL)		865.0B	916.1B		Surplus widens, reinforcing an improved prospect for a export-led recovery.
JPY	23:50	Current Account Total (yen) (JUL)		1534.6B	1675.9B
JPY	23:50	Adjusted Current Account Total (yen) (JUL)		1362.9B	1463.6B
AUD	01:30	Home Loans (JUL)		1.0%	1.7%		Rebound in home loans could lead the RBA to tighten policy further.
AUD	01:30	Investment Lending (JUL)		--	-2.3%
AUD	01:30	Value of Loans (MoM) (JUL)		--	-2.3%
JPY	04:30	Bankruptcies (YoY) (AUG)		--	-14.3%		Slowest contraction since April.
JPY	05:00	Eco Watchers Survey: Current (AUG)		49.9	45.1		Lowest level since Feb.
JPY	05:00	Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (AUG)		46.4	40.0		Lowest reading in 2010.
EUR	06:00	German Current Account (euros) (JUL)		11.5B	9.0B		Surplus narrows, with exports contracting for the first time in three-months.
EUR	06:00	German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)		0.0%	-1.5%
EUR	06:00	German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JUL)		0.1%	-2.2%
EUR	06:00	German Trade Balance (euros) (JUL)		13.0B	13.5B
EUR	06:30	Bank of France Business Sentiment (AUG)		101	101		Unchanged for 4 th month
EUR	06:45	French Central Govt Balance (euros) (JUL)		--	-93.1B		Biggest deficit since Dec ‘09
EUR	06:45	French Trade Balance (euros) (JUL)		-4.1B	-4.2B		Widens a tad from June but still on narrowing trend after peaking in May
GBP	07:00	Halifax House Prices (3MoY) (AUG)		4.4%	4.6%		Unexpectedly expands for second month.
GBP	07:00	Halifax House Prices s.a. (MoM) (AUG)		-0.5%	0.2%
GBP	08:30	Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL)		0.4%	0.3%		Rebounds after dipping in June.
GBP	08:30	Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL)		2.0%	1.9%
GBP	08:30	Manufacturing Production (MoM) (JUL)		0.3%	0.3%		Third straight expansion after contracting in April.
GBP	08:30	Manufacturing Production (YoY) (JUL)		4.9%	4.9%
EUR	10:00	German Industrial Productions (YoY) (JUL)		12.5%	10.9%		Data suggests firms as scaling back on outputs as global trade cools.
EUR	10:00	German Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL)		1.0%	0.1%

USDJPY positioning has been little changed in recent weeks despite a drop to 15-year lows, with the pair consolidating above the bottom of a falling channel established from April. The boundary doubles as the lower portion of a Falling Wedge bullish reversal pattern. Positive RSI divergence reinforces the case for an upward scenario. Our fundamental outlook continues to call for a bullish bias and we will look for a daily close above the wedge top (now at 84.44) to position for buying opportunities, planning to initially target the channel top (now at 87.12).

                

Fundamental Headlines

• Global-Bank Deal Targets Reserves – Wall Street Journal

• Yen Extends Climb Against Dollar – Wall Street Journal

• Eurozone Worries Linger Over Markets - Financial Times

•Greek Debt Deals Hidden From EU Probed as 400% Yield Gap Shows Bond Doubts - Bloomberg

• Swiss Franc Reaches Record Versus Euro on Concern Banks, Economy Struggle – Bloomberg

EUR/USD: The trade balance in Europe’s largest economy scaled back to 13.5 billion in July from 14.2 billion the month prior amid expectations of 13.0 billion. At the same time, exports unexpectedly declined 1.5 percent, while imports dropped 2.2 percent during the same period. The decline in exports does not bode well for Germany in that growth in the region has been largely supported by exports. With the bloc planning to implement tough austerity measures amid their high budget deficits, continuing downward pressure on German exports are likely to be the result in the upcoming months. Meanwhile, Bloomberg News reported that Greece still hasn’t disclosed the full details of secret financial transactions it used to conceal its debt. This trails recent rumors that European banks have underreported their exposures to the sovereign debt crisis at the previous stress tests. If these acquisitions are indeed true, this will validate my outlook for the EURUSD testing 1.2500 in the near term.

GBP / USD : House prices in the U.K. rose 0.2 percent in August amid expectations for a 0.5 percent decline, while the annualized rate jumped 4.6 percent. Despite the better than expected report, house prices are likely to come under pressure in the upcoming months as households face a weak labor market, tight credit conditions, and fiscal austerity measures imposed by the government. Meanwhile, manufacturing and industrial production both rose 0.3 percent in July from the previous month. Taking a look at the currency markets, the British pound has halted its two day decline against he U.S. dollar; however, as price action is capped by the 20-day moving average, downside risks remain. I will maintain my short position , with an open target and a stop at 1.5600. GBP traders will now shift their focus to the Bank of England interest rate decision which will be released tomorrow, while the meeting of the minutes will follow on September 22nd.

Written by Michael Wright, Currency Analyst

To Receive Future Articles by Email, please contact me at mwright@fxcm.com

Michael Wright is the author of FX Headlines , Fundamentals vs. Technical’s , Weekly Spotlight , and Forex Trading Weekly Forecast

With the world now aware of his dual life as the armored superhero Iron Man, billionaire inventor Tony Stark faces pressure from the government, the press, and the public to share his technology with the military. Unwilling to let go of his invention, Stark, along with Pepper Potts, and James "Rhodey" Rhodes at his side, must forge new alliances - and confront powerful enemies.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1228705/
Sample:
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USD/CAD: Price action remains quite choppy, although our overall outlook is highly constructive and favors additional upside towards 1.1000 over the coming weeks. For now, the latest rallies have stalled out in familiar territory by recent range highs in the 1.0600’s and we would look to take advantage of the current dip to build on long positions. Back below 1.0245 would delay outlook, while a close above 1.0700 should accelerate gains.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the "distribution" list.

If you wish to discuss this topic or any other feel free to visit our Forum page

USD/CHF: Has finally managed to take out the yearly lows from January by 1.0130, with the market easily dropping below this level to 1.0065 thus far. However, any additional declines below 1.0065 are seen limited, with medium-term studies looking stretched. As such, we would be more inclined to be looking for opportunities to buy at current levels. For now, a break and close back above 1.0240 will be required to relieve immediate downside pressures.

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

If you wish to receive Joel's reports in a more timely fashion, e-mail jskruger@fxcm.com and you will be added to the "distribution" list.

If you wish to discuss this topic or any other feel free to visit our Forum page